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E-Mini Index Futures:
Using the SBV Indicator to Trade the NASDAQ 100 E-mini


June 26, 2006

In the following example, we applied a simple trading system based on our SBV indicator:

(A) For entering short positions:

  1. Once the SBV indicator has advanced above plus 66% (the SBV indicator will show red), wait for it to decline below that level, then enter a short position;
  2. Take profits once the price / index has declined to your pre-determined profit target level OR when the SBV indicator drops below minus 66% (the SBV indicator will show green), whichever occurs first;
  3. Take losses if the price / index rises above your pre-defined stop loss level.

(B) For entering long positions:

  1. Once the SBV indicator has dropped below minus 66% (the SBV indicator will show green), wait for it to rally above that level, then enter a long position;
  2. Take profits once the price / index has risen to your pre-determined profit target level OR when the SBV indicator exceeds plus 66% (the SBV indicator will show red), whichever occurs first;
  3. Take losses if the price / index declines below your pre-defined stop loss level.

In the example below, you can see how this trading system was used to trade the NASDAQ 100 e-mini. In this example, a 5-point was pre-determined as a satisfactory profit target and 5 points was set as the stop-loss level.

Chart 1:   Using the SBV Indicator to Trade the NASDAQ 100 E-mini. 1-day view. 30-min VMA

Date Motivations Index Decision date Motivations Decision Index
06/26/06
13:16
SBV indicator shows red. SBV indicator advanced above 66% and then started to decline below that level. 1571.75 Sell Short 06/26/06
13:48
SBV indicator shows green. SBV indicator dropped below minus 66% and then started to rally above that level. Buy to Cover 1569.25
06/26/06
13:48
SBV indicator shows green. SBV indicator dropped below minus 66% and then started to rally above that level. 1569.25 Buy

06/26/06
14:46

NASDAQ 100 index advanced 5 points. Sell 1574.25

Important: The 66% level for the SBV indicator was determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time the examples above were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, a trader should consider the current market situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges including their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached). Furthermore, it is important to look at more than one chart and to use multiple timeframes. For instance, while a volume surge may look imposing and appear to be critical on a 2-hour or a 1-day chart, the very same surge may not look nearly as significant on a 5-day chart. A prominent surge appearing on a 1-day chart could well affect index levels and bring about a one to five point reversal. In contrast, a prominent volume surge on a 5-day chart may prompt a reversal of 5 to 10 points.


More Examples:
Date E-mini Number of Trades
April 23, 2007 Russell 2000 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
April 17, 2007 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
February 17, 2007 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
February 2, 2007 S&P 500 E-mini 4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades
January 23, 2007 Russell 2000 E-mini 3 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades
December 19, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades
December 11, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 2 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades
November 29, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades
August 11, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 2 "Long" and 1 "Short" trades
July 19, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades
July 18, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 5 "Long" and 6 "Short" trades
July 17, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
July 11, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 5 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
July 10, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades
July 7, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
June 28, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 26, 2006 NASDAQ 100 E-mini 1 "Short" and 1 "Long" trade
June 23, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 22, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 21, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 20, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 19, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 14, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade
June 13, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 9, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 8, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 7, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 6, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade
June 2, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 2 "Long" trades
May 17, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
May 5, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 2 "Short" trades
April 26, 2006 Dow E-mini 1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade
March 30, 2006 NASDAQ 100 E-mini 2 "Long" trades

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